(Invited Talk) A near real-time, coupled bio-physical model for the US west coast: skill assessment

Results from a near real-time modeling system for the US West coast are presented and evaluated relative to observations. The system presently includes a regional model( Navy Coastal Ocean Model—NCOM) at 9km resolution that receives boundary information from the operational global NCOM and provides boundary values to high resolution NCOM sub-nests for the Monterey Bay. The regional model and Monterey Bay nests include an embedded ecosystem model(COSINE) based on the formulation of Chai et al.(2002); these models are forced by high resolution surface fluxes from a regional COAMPS atmospheric model with resolution as fine as 3km, provided by the Meteorology Division of the Naval Research Laboratory-Monterey. The global NCOM system and the regional NCOM assimilate daily MCSST surface temperature values and synthetic profiles of temperature and salinity obtained from the MODAS product, which regresses satellite derived SST and SSH values to obtain the synthetic profiles. The NRL Ocean Color Section processes the 1km resolution MODIS imagery using standard and newly developed algorithms to obtain a variety of bio-optical products. Results clearly reveal the close linkages between the spatial and temporal structure of the surface chlorophyll fields to the mesoscale variability of the California Current system. Statistical measures are applied to the model physical and biological fields relative to observations to assess the accuracy of the model for various seasons and locations within the domain Model results are used to identify both present capabilities and issues that will be addressed in future efforts. Daily results from this integrated system are posted on the Web(http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/ccsnrt/) with approximately a 1-day delay.