Extended Abstract (3.8M)5.1
A statistical-dynamical model for quantifying regional storm climates
PAPER WITHDRAWN
John L. Keller, AIR Worldwide Corporation, Boston, MA; and P. S. Dailey and M. D. Fischer
While earthquakes and tropical hurricanes often receive considerably more media attention, mid-latitude winter storms are the cause of a considerable amount of damage. Indeed, some of the costliest events in modern history (in terms of insured losses) have resulted from strong winds associated with frontal-wave cyclones over northwestern Europe. Costly winter storms have also occurred in North America, the infamous “Storm of the Century” (March 1993) being just one example.
A regional "storm-climate" model for has been developed as an integration of the NCAR-NCEP Global Reanalysis Project data set and the 5th generation NCAR - Penn State University mesoscale model (MM5). In its statistical-dynamical (or Monte Carlo based ensemble) implementation, this model produces realistic return-period profiles when compared with other extreme event metrics. In this presentation the model-system's design and performance will be discussed, including its use with impact (economic loss) models.
Session 5, Regional Climate Models and Observations (Parallel with Session J8) (Room 609/610)
Wednesday, 14 January 2004, 1:30 PM-2:30 PM, Room 609/610
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