J2.3
ENSO and the changing landscape of drought
Bradfield Lyon, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY
Synchronous droughts in various reaches of the globe have long been associated with ENSO events, often with dire consequences for human populations and socioeconomic systems. However, the compounding effects of land use changes, increasing water demand, and trends in the climate system itself are making some regions more vulnerable to ENSO and its attendant droughts. This is the case even without consideration of a possible increase in frequency of El Nino events in the future.
In this paper some examples of this changing landscape to drought are considered by examining the drought prone regions of Indonesia and southern Africa, although the potential consequences of these changes are not limited to these regions. It is emphasized, however, that specific drought impacts are highly sensitive to the region and impact considered. This has important implications for drought monitoring, the utility of various drought measures, and the application of drought information.
.Joint Session 2, Drought: Variability Monitoring, Impacts, and Prediction (Joint between the 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations and the 14th Conference on Applied Climatology; Room 6C)
Monday, 12 January 2004, 1:30 PM-5:30 PM, Room 6C
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