Extended Abstract (228K)9.4
Using 20-km Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model output in redeveloping the Local AWIPS MOS Program (LAMP)
Judy E. Ghirardelli, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and D. E. Rudack and J. M. Flatley
The current Local AWIPS MOS Program (LAMP) system provides guidance for sensible weather elements and acts as an update to the Nested Grid Model (NGM) Model Output Statistics (MOS). In an effort to improve the LAMP system, the development software has been updated, new data sources have been collected, and new regression equations are currently being redeveloped. The new LAMP guidance will use Aviation Model (AVN) MOS predictors instead of NGM predictors, and will therefore act as an update to the AVN MOS. In addition, a variety of new observational data sources are also being collated and considered as viable predictors. Some examples include high resolution observations of radar, lightning, and satellite data.
In addition to increasing the quantity and quality of observations used in the LAMP system, we are testing the use of output from the 20-km Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model run operationally at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) as an additional predictor source. While the RUC could offer many benefits to LAMP, two primary potential problems could hinder its optimal use in development. First, the 20-km RUC has been operational only since April 2002, and therefore the developmental data sample is smaller than other primary data sources (e.g., observations and AVN MOS guidance). Second, the archive of the 20-km RUC does not contain all forecasts for every projection LAMP might forecast for, in effect, limiting the number of possible predictors. Despite these constraints, we believe that the use of RUC data in the LAMP system could still enhance its performance.
The potential impediments and benefits from incorporating this new source of predictors will be discussed. Tests on using the RUC output in development of the temperature and dew point guidance will be summarized. Preliminary results on visibility guidance will also be shown. Results quantifying the benefits of this new approach will be presented.
Session 9, Maximizing the Value of Model Output (ROOM 605/606)
Tuesday, 13 January 2004, 11:00 AM-12:15 PM, Room 605/606
Previous paper Next paper