P3.6
What the 2002 drought revealed about user needs for Western regional climate services
Andrea J. Ray, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO
The extremely dry water year of October 2001-September 2002 in Colorado provided an impetus for potential users to consider applications of weather and climate information, and revealed needs for climate services. We conducted a number of “rapid response” activities, such as providing climate information to reservoir managers and the Colorado Water Availability Task Force, and complementing ongoing user studies. We documented reactions of our user-partners to available information, both official forecasts and experimental products, and also determined what products were needed that were not available. On one level, our activities were more successful than we imagined. Their interest increased in gaining access to climate information, and many users enhanced their knowledge about climate and drought. Some users began to ask for climate forecasts and information regularly; for example, a climate briefing became an important part of the Colorado Drought Task Force Meeting, and also at key meetings of reservoir managers.
However, the drought response was less successful in terms of being able to provide climate products at the regional to local spatial scales at which many decisions are made (such as river basins and other management units). Furthermore, we observed a number of other unmet needs for information, beyond outlooks or forecasts, related to regional climatology and typical seasonal cycles. This talk will discuss the feedback we got from our user-partners regarding existing products, and the other kinds of information that they asked for.
In our conversations with potential users, many were interested in information on the history of climate, not just forecasts. The information at the spatial and temporal scales they seek was not readily available. As the driest of several average to dry years in 1998-2003 in Colorado, many water managers with longer term planning horizons began to ask questions about return periods of drought and the statistical likelihood of persistence of several dry years. Others with more immediate operational concerns were interested in the statistical likelihood of another dry year (vs. the forecast), based on the paleoclimate record. For both planning and operational purposes, Colorado water managers with resources on both sides of the continental divide were interested in how often both areas have been dry in history; WY 2002 was thought to be unusual in that both sides of the Divide were dry. We also observed a number of adjustments to drought that were undertaken by managers which did not consider climate information or forecasts, such as not calling for senior water rights, leases for water, and adjustments to maintain environmental flows. These adjustments allowed us to infer the kinds of information that might have been used if available. This information might have enabled earlier agreements and more efficient use of scarce water.
Feedback on existing products allows us to draw some conclusions about how NOAA climate information and products might be adapted to better suit this large group of users. Forecast and monitoring products generally are not available at the scales that decisions are made, but this problem goes beyond downscaling from a grid box, to understanding the user’s scales of decisions and how management decisions relate to larger scales.
Overall, the rapid response activities increased the interest in climate information. However, the drought year was a missed opportunity to capitalize on the increased interest to provide prototype climate services to these users. Enhanced or new information was not available to support decisions that had to be made in an operational time frame, and will have to be made in the next Western drought.
Poster Session 3, Climate Services
Wednesday, 14 January 2004, 2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Hall AB
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