P1.15
Planning, Nowcasting and Forecasting in the Urban Zone
Elliot Abrams, AccuWeather Inc, State College, PA; and K. Reeves
Forecasting the weather to help save lives and property in an urban area presents multiple challenges. Emergency management personnel have plans and procedures in place, but execution can be affected by many natural and anthropogenic factors. Example: after a gunman opened fire in New York City’s City Council Chambers on July 24, 2003, police activity caused virtual gridlock in lower Manhattan. The weather was sunny at the time, and fortunately there were no terrorist activities noted. But suppose fast changing or severe weather was in progress. Suppose terrorists had used the incident as cover for a biological or other airborne substance attack. How would the public be best served in the face of multiple catastrophies? Meteorologists would need to be quickly involved in the warning and assessment efforts. The National Weather Service and other Federal agencies surely try to plan for such eventualities, but what about the typical weather consumer who is not privy to official communications.? Television and radio meteorologists would need to address the unfolding situation as best they could. But what tools are available today? What other tools, such as a blanket of observations, rapid –run models that make short term forecasts on a neighborhood basis, etc. should be instantly available? Today’s big city radio services on all-news stations probably come closest to the model of what is state of the art in rapid-change forecasting for the public today. In such a setting, a meteorologist has less than a minute to describe all of the weather factors and hazards impacting the metropolitan area. They use multiple screen imagery of Doppler radar, satellite, and other meteorological parameters (observations and models) to make play by play interpretations of the unfolding weather situation. This paper describes and shows this process at work, and suggests tools that could make the effort even more useful and timely. In addition, there is discussion of The National Weather Service’s new National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD), (and other digital databases in use and under development in the commercial sector). Such systems promise to automate much of the routine forecasting heretofore done manually. The number of forecast points is limitless, so at minimal incremental cost, many more places can be served with no increase in work. However, the NDFD and other digital databases may not adequately incorporate or address severe weather in their current iterations. How will these products be used in emergency situations or rapidly changing weather situations? Will increased attention devoted to keeping such systems current compromise the severe weather/rapid update forecasting effort? In the end, any tool used must be available and accessible for use almost instantly or else it has no value in life or property saving efforts.
Poster Session 1, Urban Zone Posters (Hall 4AB)
Monday, 12 January 2004, 2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Hall 4AB
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