4.3
Changes of Precipitation Characteristics by Global Warming Simulated by the MRI CGCM
Akio Kitoh, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and M. Hosaka, Y. Adachi, and Y. Murata
We conducted the simulations under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios with the MRI CGCM. Three ensemble runs were performed for each scenario. Daily precipitation output was analyzed with respect to changes in extreme events and global water cycle. In the tropics, eastward displacement of precipitation was noted associated with El Nino-like SST changes. In JJA, the Asian monsoon rainfall increased while the African monsoon rainfall decreased. In the middle-high latitudes, the precipitation increased. A decrease in precipitation around the eastern Mediterranean region is significant both in summer and winter, and also both in convective and stratiform precipitation. A poleward shift of the storm track in future climate may be responsible to wintertime precipitation changes there. Changes in extreme precipitation events such as rainy days, drought duration, heavy precipitation and probability distribution of precipitation were also analyzed. It was found that both the frequency and intensity increased in about 40% of the globe, while both the frequency and intensity decreased in about 20% of the globe. In between, which occupies around one third of the globe, the precipitation frequency decreased but its intensity increased, suggesting a shift of precipitation distribution toward more intense events by global warming. In particular, the Mediterranean and Middle East is such a region where both total precipitation and number of rainy days decreased but precipitation intensity itself increased. .
Session 4, Climate Models: Evaluation and Projections, Part I (Room 608)
Tuesday, 13 January 2004, 8:30 AM-3:15 PM, Room 608
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