Extended Abstract (212K)JP4.1
Forecast Considerations: Application of the Point Forecast Matrices in Heat/Health Warning Systems
Douglas C. Young, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD
NOAA's National Weather Service Point Forecast Matrices (PFM) product is the piloted source of meteorological input variables necessary for Heat/Health Warning System (HHWS). This paper aims to identify the underlying reasons for utilizing the PFM in HHWS. First, the benefits of using the PFM as a source for meteorological forecast data are addressed: (1) added value of ingesting NWS forecasted weather parameters rather than using direct model output statistics (MOS) from the Global Forecast System (GFS) numerical weather prediction model; (2) flexibility for potential targeted expansion to new cities; and (3) ability to extend HHWS guidance in time from the current two days to a maximum of seven days into the future. Second, a brief history and description of the PFM are presented, including the forecast parameters extracted for use in HHWS. In the concluding section, the importance of PFM reliability, timeliness, accuracy and resolution are discussed.
Joint Poster Session 4, Heat/Health Warning Systems (Joint between the 14th Conference on Applied Climatology and the Symposium on Planning, Nowcasting, and Forecasting in the Urban Zone; Hall 4AB)
Wednesday, 14 January 2004, 2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Hall 4AB
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