Extended Abstract (108K)J4.3
National Long-range Hydrologic Prediction System
Qingyun Duan, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. Schaake
The NOAA GAPP Core Project is collaborating with NCEP and the University community to develop a system to produce probabilistic hydrological forecasts for lead times from a month to a year. This will be an integral part of the AHPS program. The initial focus is on experimental forecasts of natural runoff. The main purpose of this system is to serve as a test-bed for hydrologic application of monthly and seasonal precipitation and temperature forecasts. If it can be demonstrated that valid long-range runoff forecasts can be produced from this system, a national NWS long-range runoff forecast product will be developed. This product will use RFC produced runoff forecasts where they are available and the results of the NHLPS where they are not. This system will use AHPS ensemble pre-processors to provide the ensemble forcing for the NHLPS hydrological model(s).
Joint Session 4, Applications of Seasonal Predictions (Joint with the 15th Symp on Global Change and Climate Variations and 14th Conf on Applied Climatology (Room 609/610)
Wednesday, 14 January 2004, 4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Room 609/610
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