Extended Abstract (100K)18.9
A dynamic—stochastic approach to road and bridge frost forecasting
John J. Mewes, Meridian Environmental Technology, Inc., Grand Forks, ND; and R. Hart
An experimental dynamic – stochastic approach to road and bridge frost forecasting was introduced by Meridian Environmental Technology, Inc. to its transportation maintenance weather customers during the 2002-2003 winter season. This approach is centered around an energy and mass balance pavement model that creates a baseline road or bridge temperature forecast. This baseline forecast is subsequently used in combination with uncertainty envelopes in the road or bridge temperature and dew point forecasts to assign a probability of frost formation at each hour of the forecast period. The details, strengths and weaknesses of this approach as determined from operational applications are discussed.
Session 18, Advances and Applications in Transportation Weather Part II (ROOM 6B)
Thursday, 15 January 2004, 1:30 PM-5:15 PM, Room 6B
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