Extended Abstract (320K)J12.3
The new and improved Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) analysis and prediction system
Bob Glahn, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. E. Ghirardelli
The Local AFOS MOS Program (LAMP) was conceived in the late 70's and was most recently implemented on the National Weather Service’s (NWS) Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) with the name Local AWIPS MOS Program. This system is currently furnishing guidance for most weather elements for projections out to 20 hours. Because of resource limitations and other constraints, it is implemented on an 80-km grid only over the contiguous United States, and runs at 3-hourly intervals.
Due to NWS requirements for guidance over all 50 states, as well as increased hardware and data availability, we are redeveloping the system and have given this analysis, modelling, and prediction system the more appropriate name Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP). This system will be implemented centrally on the NWS mainframe computer, and the output will be furnished in much the same way as Model Output Statistics (MOS) forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Aviation Model (AVN). LAMP will run every hour and furnish guidance at hourly intervals.
The main thrust of LAMP, in addition to its furnishing updated, timely MOS guidance for all weather elements, will be improved forecasts for aviation. Inputs will include radar and satellite data on a 10-km grid and output from a small scale dynamic model, as well as METAR observations and MOS forecasts. For the early projections (e.g., 1 and 2 hours) the forecasts will be heavily influenced by persistence and advective fields. At the longest projections, the update forecasts will fair into the MOS. At mid-projections, statistics will furnish an optimum blend of all inputs.
The main improvements over the current LAMP are that it will:
1) be implemented for all 50 states and Puerto Rico 2) produce guidance hourly rather than every 3 hours 3) have additional data inputs 4) be based on AVN MOS rather than Limited-area Fine Mesh Model (LFM) MOS 5) have improved statistical techniques 6) run on a 10-km grid, rather than an 80-km grid 7) produce guidance for about 1500 stations rather than 950 8) produce gridded thunderstorm guidance
The guidance from LAMP will assist forecasters in updating Interactive Forecast Preparation System(IFPS)/National Digital Forecast Database(NDFD) grids on an event, rather than 6-h cycle time, basis. Differences between the current and new LAMP will be detailed.
Joint Session 12, Forecast Verification (Joint between the 17th Conference on Probability and Statistics and the 20th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (Room 6A)
Thursday, 15 January 2004, 1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Room 6A
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