8.5
Operational short-term flood forecasting for Bangladesh using ECMWF ensemble precipitation forecasts
Thomas M. Hopson, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Webster and R. Grossman
The country of Bangladesh frequently experiences severe catchment-scale flooding from the combined discharges of the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers. We are disseminating upper-catchment discharge forecasts for this country to provide advanced warning for evacuation and relief measures. These forecasts are being generated using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) shortterm ensemble precipitation forecasts and a combination of distributed and data-based modeling techniques. The forecasts from each of these models are combined using the super-ensemble technique commonly employed in numerical weather prediction. This leads to a reduction in the overall forecast error and capitalizes on the strengths of each model during different periods of the monsoon season. In addition, the models are combined such that the probabilistic nature of the ensemble precipitation forecasts is retained while being combined with the discharge modeling error to produce true probabilistic forecasts of discharge that are being employed operationally.
Session 8, IIPS and NWP Applications (ROOM 613/614)
Tuesday, 13 January 2004, 1:30 PM-5:30 PM, Room 613/614
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