2.5
Weather Forecast in the Belgrade Observatory at the Beginning of the Twentieth Century
Natalija Janc, AER, Baltimore, MD
Astronomical and Meteorological Observatory in Belgrade, Serbia, was opened on July 1, 1887. The founder and director of this scientific institution for many years was Milan Nedeljkovic (b. Belgrade 1857, d. Belgrade 1950).
Setting up a regular forecast service was planned from the very beginning of the Observatory's activities. To start the forecast service, two prerequisites were necessary: (1) To set up a network of meteorological stations across Serbia and (2) To start data interchange with institutions abroad.
From 1902, the Belgrade Observatory was receiving meteorological data from Turkey, Bulgaria, Greece, and Romania, whereas the Budapest Meteorological Institute was providing data from Hungary, Austria, Italy, Croatia, and Bosnia.
Based on such data, the weather forecasting was started. The daily forecasts were published in newspapers. Mr. Nedeljkovic commented the public opinion: "If the forecast is right in 85 percent of cases and wrong in the remaining 15 percent, it is enough to be blamed as a failure." Publication of the Observatory's forecasts was not regular. The forecaster was the Director or some of the clerks---as an additional duty---but proper forecasting department had not yet been established.
Besides the Observatory's forecasts, there were individuals who were making forecasts on their own, based on the positions of the Sun and the Moon.
Session 2, Historical Climate and Weather Issues
Tuesday, 13 January 2004, 1:30 PM-2:45 PM, Room 2A
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