J4.1A
Winter Precipitation Forecasts over the Southern High Plains
PAPER WITHDRAWN
Steven A. Mauget, USDA/ARS, Lubbock, TX
Past research here has shown that Texas winter wheat production is strongly affected by winter rainfall variability associated with the El Niņo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Current research using a probabilistic neural network reveals the potential for predicting October-February rainfall over the Southern High Plains based on the state of Pacific sea-surface temperature and sea-level pressure during the previous summer and spring months. The ability to forecast winter precipitation and the resulting impacts on grazing potential, and to make management decisions that exploit that forecast information, could result in increased profits to ranchers.
Joint Session 4, Applications of Seasonal Predictions (Joint with the 15th Symp on Global Change and Climate Variations and 14th Conf on Applied Climatology (Room 609/610)
Wednesday, 14 January 2004, 4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Room 609/610
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