Extended Abstract (1.5M)J4.5
Climate, fuels, fire and decisions: The making of national monthly and seasonal wildland fire outlooks
Timothy J. Brown, DRI, Reno, NV; and G. G. Garfin, T. Wordell, R. Ochoa, and B. Morehouse
The record setting wildland fire season of 2000 sent a shockwave through land management agencies and political bodies. What followed in 2001 was a revision of the 1995 Fire Policy to improve its implementation, the establishment of the National Fire Plan, and an infusion of nearly two billion dollars for firefighting, rehabilitation/restoration, hazardous fuels reduction, community assistance and accountability. Two of the numerous outcomes of this new opportunity was the hiring around the country of approximately 20 agency fire weather meteorologists, and the establishment of Predictive Services, a concept to provide improved information and forecasts of weather, climate, fuels and fire activity. Up until recently, it was common for fire management to utilize daily fire weather forecasts for tactical decisions, but for most, anything much longer than a day or two usually was not of interest. However, perhaps tied to limited available resources, management objectives, accountability and advances in available tools and information, a value in longer-range products is being recognized for strategic planning. In the spring of 2003, for the first time ever, a team of fire weather meteorologists, fire and fuels specialists, management and climatologists met to produce the first comprehensive seasonal fire potential outlook for the U.S. The outlook incorporated past, present and future information of climate and fuels, along with an accumulated knowledge base of how these relate to fire activity. Organized by the National Interagency Coordination Center (NICC; Predictive Services), Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS; University of Arizona), and the Program for Climate, Ecosystem and Fire Applications (CEFA; Desert Research Institute), several tangible products evolved including: 1) geographic area wildland fire outlook reports; 2) NICC preseason national wildland fire outlook; 3) 2003 consensus climate forecasts for wildland fire management; and 4) standardized protocols for producing long-range fire danger outlooks. The workshop process provided a model and mechanism for increasing organizational capacity, enhancing multiagency collaboration, improving the use of forecast information and climatological analysis, and transitioning the results of research to an operational process for improved communication and decision making. In this paper we review the design of the workshop, summarize the outcomes to date, and discuss steps necessary to improve regional preseason fire danger outlooks.
Joint Session 4, Applications of Seasonal Predictions (Joint with the 15th Symp on Global Change and Climate Variations and 14th Conf on Applied Climatology (Room 609/610)
Wednesday, 14 January 2004, 4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Room 609/610
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