P2.2
GOES R Cost-Benefit Analysis Update
Eric J. Miller, NOAA/NESDIS, Silver Spring, MD; and R. C. Reining, A. C. Taub, M. S. Garant, and L. A. Oringer
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) is developing the next-generation Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R), which is expected to provide significant advances in earth coverage and environmental data and prediction capabilities around the 2012 time frame. GOES’ unique vantage point provides continuous, near-real-time updates of weather and environmental conditions for the Americas and large portions of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. In general, changes in products from the GOES-R sensors can be attributed to: (1) more frequent updates; (2) finer horizontal resolution; and, (3) expanded and finer spectral resolution. The two key instruments within the GOES suite of sensors are the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) and Hyperspectral Environmental Sounder (HES). To provide a firm foundation for the formulation of the GOES-R budget, NOAA initiated an analysis of the marginal cost and benefit differences (in economic terms) between continuation of instruments with similar performance to today’s imager and sounder and the planned improved technology of the GOES-R imager and sounder. Two phases are complete and the third and final phase is currently underway. In Phase I, the goal of the benefits analysis was to ensure linkage of benefits to sensor performance improvements alone; in Phase II we considered sensor as well as other architectural changes as means to achieve these benefits. In Phase III, we are looking at shipping, and specifically what the HES Suite as well as the lightning mapper will provide from a benefit standpoint. We also examined potential benefits realized from integrating GOES-R data with other space systems and in-situ measurements (e.g., radio sondes and ground stations). The benefits from the GOES R data and products will not only be critical to the economic well being of our users but will further national interests in the area of natural resources management, impact mitigation from severe weather, and for homeland security.
Each year, the U.S. suffers billions of dollars in losses due to lost time, property and crop damage, and lost lives due to weather and environmental conditions. This paper touches on the methodology used to establish the linkage from satellite performance improvements to product improvements to user operational decision making that results in economic benefits. It will also present the results of case studies that include, (1) improved management of water resources used for irrigated agriculture, (2) reduced risk of flooding through improved reservoir management, (3) improved prediction and detection of hazards to aviation and trucking, (4) improved energy efficiency (fuel savings) for electric and natural gas utilities, and (5) mitigation of impacts from tropical storms via improved safing of assets (recreational boats) and evacuation management. The linkages between environmental conditions and spread of vector borne diseases are also being explored. Economic benefits are presented in annual savings (2003$) and discounted present value (representing the discounted benefits over the life of the program).
Poster Session 2, IIPS Poster Session II
Wednesday, 14 January 2004, 2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Room 4AB
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