Extended Abstract (104K)J5.3
The impact of climate change on our cities
Martin Best, Met Office, Wallingford, United Kingdom; and R. Betts
There has been much work over the years to quantify and understand the urban heat island. However, with the continual increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide, it is not known what will happen to the urban heat island under future climates. This talk will attempt to investigate the impact that climate change could have on the built environment and the subsequent effects on its inhabitants.
Using a simple parametrization of an urban environment enables us to make an initial investigation into the impact of the general building properties and geometry on the urban heat island. We can also assess the impact that the urban areas have on their local climate, and then build on these results to establish the impact of the anthropogenic heat source within cities.
An understanding of the elements that make up the urban heat island enable us to analyse the signal that we see under climate change. This paper investigates different scenarios from no future anthropogenic urban heat source, to the estimated trebling of the current day heat source through increased fossil fuel consumption.
The implications for both building design and the effects on the cities' population will also be discussed, along with the impact of current day heat island mitigation proposals.
Joint Session 5, Climate Change and Urban Areas (Joint with the Symp. on Planning, Nowcasting and Forecasting in the Urban Zone and 15th Symp. on Global Change and Climate Variations; Room 609/610)
Thursday, 15 January 2004, 8:30 AM-9:45 AM, Room 609/610
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