Presenter: John D. Wiener, Program on Environment and Behavior, Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0468; phone 303-492-6746; fax 303-492-1231;
A case study of the Arkansas Valley in Colorado has resulted in a calendar of what decisions are made during the annual round in agriculture in an area highly-dependent on farming and livestock production. There is also a "shopping list" of desired qualities and forms of information, as well as contents and subjects. The presentation will review those requests which are apparently least satisfied, and provide some explanation of why the requests are made. The hopes for improved information without depending on down-scaling from global circulation models will also be described, in terms of two kinds of approaches. First, help will be requested with "calibration", which is used as a loose term for information and guidance that helps rural people make the best possible use of forecasts that are focused on more heavily-populated areas, based on weather station information from other places, and interpreted for urban rather than agricultural interests. This is especially attractive where newcomers are managing increasing acreage without benefit of long residence on the land. Second, help will be requested in development of expert systems which can use forecast products, existing models and tools, and localized input information for improved prediction of variables which are of special interest to small agriculture. Emphasis will be on equity-informed approaches to private augmentation of public science, data research and predictions, in grateful response to the organizers' encouragement to challenge the audience regarding unmet needs with potentially important benefits. Apparently simple improvements in forecasting and forecast applications can be financially quite important. And, improved agricultural applications can help with smoothing the changes imposed by rapid urbanization in the West, which draws water from agricultural use.
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