84th AMS Annual Meeting

Thursday, 15 January 2004: 3:45 PM
A dynamic—stochastic approach to road and bridge frost forecasting
Room 6B
John J. Mewes, Meridian Environmental Technology, Inc., Grand Forks, ND; and R. Hart
Poster PDF (92.6 kB)
An experimental dynamic – stochastic approach to road and bridge frost forecasting was introduced by Meridian Environmental Technology, Inc. to its transportation maintenance weather customers during the 2002-2003 winter season. This approach is centered around an energy and mass balance pavement model that creates a baseline road or bridge temperature forecast. This baseline forecast is subsequently used in combination with uncertainty envelopes in the road or bridge temperature and dew point forecasts to assign a probability of frost formation at each hour of the forecast period. The details, strengths and weaknesses of this approach as determined from operational applications are discussed.

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