Wednesday, 14 January 2004: 1:30 PM
Results of Chemical Data Assimilation in the BAMS/MCNC Numerical Air Quality Prediction System
Room 612
Poster PDF
(143.3 kB)
The traditional air quality model initialization approach,
in which one "cycles" the model, using one forecast to
initialize the next, suffers from potential model drift,
in which errors in one forecast simulation (possibly due
to errors in the meteorological, emissions, or air quality
simulations within the system) propagate into the next.
For the MCNC/BAMS Numerical Air Quality Prediction System, we have attempted to ameliorate these errors by the use of a new algorithm that assimilates chemical observational data
from monitor data provided by EPA's AIRNOW project. We
have employed the algorithm in our summer-season daily
MM5/SMOKE/MAQSIP-RT air quality forecasts. Here we present some caveats about the limitations of the algorithm, together with an analysis and interpretation of both the near-term forecast performance and of the persistence of the effects due to the perturbation introduced by the assimilation.
Supplementary URL: