Monday, 12 January 2004
Ensemble synoptic analysis
Hall 4AB
Gregory J. Hakim, University of Washington, Seattle, WA
Synoptic and mesoscale meteorology underwent a revolution in the 1940s
and 1950s with the widespread deployment of novel weather observations,
such as the radiosonde network and the advent of weather radar. These
observations provoked a rapid increase in our understanding of the
structure and dynamics of the atmosphere by pioneering analysts such as
Fred Sanders. I will argue that we may be approaching an analogous
revolution in our ability to study the structure and dynamics of
atmospheric phenomena with the advent of probabilistic objective
analyses. These probabilistic analyses provide not only best-estimates
of the state of the atmosphere (e.g., the expected value) and the
uncertainty about this state (e.g., the variance), but also the
relationships between all locations and all variables at that instant
in time. Up until now, these relationships have been determined by
sampling methods (e.g., case studies and composites) and time-series
analysis.
Probabilistic analyses may soon be provided by ensemble-based
state-estimation methods such as the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF).
Currently, we have the odd situation where ensembles provide
probabilistic forecasts based on deterministic analyses. The EnKF
offers the possibility to relax this restriction and move toward fully
probabilistic state estimation and forecasting. Ensemble synoptic
analysis may then be realized and used to study atmospheric phenomena
and their relationships. For example, one could diagnose the
relationship between surface fronts and tropopause disturbances, or
tropical sea-surface temperature anomalies and extratropical planetary
waves. After a brief overview of a research-based EnKF, illustrative
examples of ensemble synoptic analysis will be given, including
statistically determined operators for potential-vorticity inversion.
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