Beyond meeting Initial Operating Capability (IOC) goals, the most important task facing the IFPS/GFE team at WFO Anchorage is the development of an objective forecast framework within IFPS/GFE. A major obstacle to the formulation of a systematic methodology is the disconnect between the sensible weather elements in the IFPS “forecast” database and the atmosphere. Stated differently, once a set of sensible weather elements is manipulated, it ceases to be physically associated with a 4-dimensional representation of the atmosphere (the 4-D Cube). This disassociation renders the systematic use of NWP output in subsequent calculations problematic.

Further complicating the IFPS process is the fact that the forecaster is modifying sensible weather elements based on a conceptual model that often diverges from any NWP (best model of the day) 4-D Cube. The result can lead to an incoherent, or inconsistent “forecast” database. This is especially evident as one tracks the evolution of a time-slice of sensible weather elements from Day 7 through Day 1.

This paper is an attempt to provide a framework for future IFPS/GFE development. The framework would allow the forecaster to create a suite of sensible weather element grids that is physically consistent with the 4-D Cube from which it is derived.