Extreme hydrologic events from an ensemble of CCSM3 climate change simulations
Marcia L. Branstetter, ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN; and D. J. Erickson
One of the key questions is whether the extremes in weather phenomena such as floods and droughts will increase in the future along with increasing global average temperatures. Daily and monthly results from a set of ensemble simulations from the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) were analyzed to detect extreme highs and lows over a hundred year period from 2000-2100. The ensemble of simulations was from an IPCC A2 climate change scenario. The number of extreme highs in daily precipitation was significantly higher during the latter part of the simulation period in some regions. This period also showed a significant change in runoff during the later years, wetter some places and drier other places.
Joint Poster Session 2, Model Diagnostics and General Climate Variability (Joint with Climate Change Manifested by Changes in Weather and 19th Conference on Climate Variability and Change)
Monday, 15 January 2007, 2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Exhibit Hall C
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