Bridging the gap between weather and climate forecasting: Research priorities for intra-seasonal prediction
Zoltan Toth, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Pena and A. Vintzileos
The focus of NOAA's THORPEX program is improving the skill and utility of forecasts over the 3-14 day lead-time range. No hard barrier, however, exists at day 14. Users require a forecast product suite that is seamless across different time ranges; and scientifically, predicting weather at shorter, or various statistics of weather at longer time ranges is based on the same laws of physics.
Recently, NOAA held a planning workshop where scientists from the community reviewed current activities and future plans related to intra-seasonal forecasting. This presentation will report on the open science questions that if solved the invited experts found most promising for bringing major advances in the area of intra-seasonal forecasting. The recommendations included research related to the observing system, data assimilation, numerical modeling, ensemble forecasting, as well as socio-economic applications for the 10-60 day forecast lead time range.
Extended Abstract (68K)
Joint Poster Session 4, Joint Poster: Climate & Extremes, Linking Weather and Climate (Joint with Second Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research, Symposium on Connections Between Mesoscale Processes and Climate Variability, 19th Conference on Climate Variability and Change, and Climate Change Manifested by Changes in Weather)
Wednesday, 17 January 2007, 2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Exhibit Hall C
Previous paper Next paper
Browse or search entire meeting
AMS Home Page