The Eugene Rasmusson Symposium


Ensemble forecasts starting from coupled bred vectors with NASA coupled general circulation model

Shu-Chih Yang, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and E. Kalnay, M. Rienecker, and M. Cai

The two-sided coupled breeding cycle has been implemented in NASA coupled general circulation model. Bred vectors rescaled with different norms are used to initialize the ensemble forecasts for El Niņo prediction. During a 10-year period (1993-2002), our results show that forecast experiments initialized from bred vectors showed a large improvement starting from the cold season. Our results also suggest that it helps to alleviate the tendency to overpredict warm/cold events.

Poster Session 1, Poster Session
Thursday, 18 January 2007, 9:45 AM-11:00 AM, Exhibit Hall C

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