87th AMS Annual Meeting

Thursday, 18 January 2007: 3:45 PM
Development of a strategy for including long-range climate forecast information in ensemble forcing for hydrologic ensemble prediction
211 (Henry B. Gonzalez Convention Center)
J. C. Schaake, NOAA/NWS, Annapolis, MD; and P. J. Restrepo, D. J. Seo, R. Hartman, K. Werner, L. Wu, and J. Demargne
As a part of the hydrology component of the NOAA CPPA Core Project, NOAA/NWS/OHD with RFCs and other collaborators has been developing a prototype pre-processor to generate precipitation and temperature forcing for our hydrologic ensemble forecast system. This prototype is now in experimental operation at several RFCs. In this presentation we provide an overview of the current status and an outline of the strategy to add additional functionality to use long-range climate forecast information. The current pre-processor uses (i) short range single value forecasts of precipitation and temperature as prescribed by the RFC and (ii) medium range ensemble mean forecasts from a fixed version of NCEP's GFS ensemble forecast system. The initial focus of the long range forecast strategy is to use ensemble mean forecasts from NCEP's CFS ensemble forecast system. Subsequently, possibilities for using other sources of long range forecast information including forecasts from other models and from empirical statistical methods will be discussed.

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