Monday, 15 January 2007: 1:30 PM
Modeling the development and population density of West Nile vectors using climate data
206A (Henry B. Gonzalez Convention Center)
Accurate relationships between climate and infectious disease are dependent upon undefined local scale parameters that have not been related to regional climate data. As part of our long-term goal of understanding the dynamics of West Nile transmission cycles, we investigated local scale parameters for Culex and Aedes vectors of West Nile virus in the New York State. Both laboratory and field-based assessments of the development the immature life stages of West Nile vectors were conducted. Preliminary models using these local scale parameters have been developed. In addition, we developed models for adult mosquito populations. The inputs of these models include temperature, humidity and rainfall. A genetic algorithm approach was used to optimize model functions such as development rate, mortality rate and fecundity. These optimizations minimize the error between the simulation and light trap data and allow accurate productions of mosquito captures in several sites across New York State. These data will be presented in light of the role of climate on West Nile vector development and virus transmission in New York State.