Monday, 15 January 2007
Effects of climate change on energy demand in Orlando, Florida
Exhibit Hall C (Henry B. Gonzalez Convention Center)
Under the assumption of continued global warming over the next 50 years, summertime energy consumption in U.S. cities will increase, with this effect being enhanced in many cities due to the increasing impact of the urban heat island. In other words, global and local effects may both contribute to the expected energy consumption increase. Based on approximately 50 years of daily temperature data and 5 years of daily energy data from the local utility provider, we have determined relationships between daily temperature and energy demand for the Orlando, FL metropolitan area. Utilizing predicted temperature trends along with a Monte Carlo simulation algorithm, we have generated an ensemble of future summer climate scenarios in Orlando to 2055, considering inter-annual variability as well as climate trends. These temperature scenarios are then linked to energy consumption and to cost scenarios through empirical relationships. The non-linear load-cost relationship, attributed to the changing mix of power plant allocations as a function of load, suggests very large increases in cost for future simulations based on higher mean temperatures.