87th AMS Annual Meeting

Thursday, 18 January 2007: 9:30 AM
Sensitivity tests of precipitation forecast to soil moisture initial condition using NCEP WRF ensemble system
209 (Henry B. Gonzalez Convention Center)
Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and G. Gayno
NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting (SREF) system has been running in operation since 2001. It's noticed that ensemble spread particularly in precipitation and near-surface variables such as 2m temperature are underdispersive especially in warm seasons. Early research results suggested that perturbing soil moisture in land surface model (LSM) might increase ensemble spread in summer rainfall forecasts. To test if it's also the case in operational setting, a series of sensitivity tests of precipitation and near-surface variables to soil moisture initial conditions are performed using the NCEP operational WRF ensemble system for both warm and cold season cases before a more sound LSM perturbation generating scheme is designed. This talk will present the results from those preliminary sensitivity studies. It's planned to add perturbations to LSM to further increase diversity of the NCEP SREF system.

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