Wednesday, 17 January 2007
Analyses of Winds and PM2.5 Concentrations from the ClearSky Ensemble Smoke Dispersion Forecast System
Exhibit Hall C (Henry B. Gonzalez Convention Center)
The ClearSky Smoke Dispersion Forecast System was developed to assist burn managers in making decisions to burn agricultural fields in the Pacific Northwest. Heitkamp (2006) investigated the use of a suite of meteorological forecasts within the ClearSky system to produce ensemble forecasts of predicted PM2.5 concentrations from agricultural field burns. The purpose of this project is to extend the analysis of the ensemble ClearSky system by examining the suite of ensemble forecasts in terms of similarities and differences in distributions of wind directions and speeds and the effects of these distributions upon the transport of smoke plumes from field burns. To accomplish this, windroses, plume trajectories, and concentration roses are used to compare the different meteorological forecasts and accuracy of the PM2.5 forecasts.