Saturday, 13 January 2007
Eye & eyewall structure climatology derived from recon vortex message reports and their use toward statistical intensity forecasting
Over the past few decades hurricane track forecasting has improved markedly in skill, while hurricane intensity forecasting has lagged considerably. The majority of hurricane intensity forecast products focus more on the environment of the storm, and do not yet utilize the details of the vortex reports from reconaissence. To this end, this research involves forming a climatology of eye size, temperature, pressure, winds, etc. using reconnaissance vortex data over the past seventeen years. The main goal of this project is to find relationships between hurricane eyewall and eye strcutre and their replacement cycles from these reports, and to use these relationships to possibly improve short-term intensity forecasting.