Recorded presentation3.2
Developing daily insect migration risk forecasts for Midwest agricultural decision makers
David Changnon, Northern Illinois Univ., DeKalb, IL; and M. Sandstrom
Sweet corn, similar to most crops grown in the Midwest, is impacted by various types of insects that once in a field can greatly reduce yield and reduce quality. The most damaging pest, the corn earworm (CEW), over-winters in areas south of the Midwest and must migrate northward during periods of the growing season. Midwestern food processing entomologists, university cooperative extension scientists, and corn growers have considered ways to reduce CEW-induced losses through spraying efforts, however, most realized the best ways to minimize sweet corn losses required integration of real-time weather forecast information into their spraying decisions. Through interactions with these individuals, an Insect Migration Risk Forecast (IMRF) was developed and is now posted daily (Monday-Friday) from May 1 to September 30 (see agweather.niu.edu). This forecast (using maps and a forecast discussion) identifies potential CEW source regions (based on trap count data collected by growers), areas under some level of risk (based on wind flow patterns and opportunities for bug drop out), and provides a probability that migratory CEWs may land in a specific growing region. In addition, the forecasts communicate levels of uncertainty that exist in short-term forecast model output. Feedback on the forecasts from the agricultural community has been very positive and has been used to enhance the IMRF and add new features to the webpage. Recorded presentation
Session 3, Providing forecasts to support user decisions
Wednesday, 23 January 2008, 4:00 PM-5:30 PM, 214
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