Recorded presentation8B.7
Verification of hemispheric-wide winter temperature forecasts based on fall snow and atmospheric anomalies
Judah Cohen, AER, Lexington, MA; and C. Fletcher
One outstanding issue in seasonal climate prediction is whether there is any robust predictability beyond ENSO dynamics. We have operationally produced real-time winter forecasts for the US based on fall Eurasian snow cover and atmospheric anomalies for the past seven years. Operational forecasts have been expanded to include Europe for the past three years and East Asia for the past two winters. In addition, hindcasts have been produced for the winters 1972/73-2004/05. Here we assess the skill of these forecasts, up through the most recent winter season. These snow-based forecasts appear to provide considerable additional information beyond the standard-ENSO based forecasts and even the most sophisticated dynamical models. Recorded presentation
Session 8B, Climate Prediction
Tuesday, 22 January 2008, 3:30 PM-5:30 PM, 217-218
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