Extended Abstract (1.5M)JP3.11
A typhoon loss estimation model for China
Peter J. Sousounis, AIR Worldwide Corporation, Boston, MA; and H. He, M. L. Healy, V. K. Jain, G. Ljung, Y. Qu, and B. Shen-Tu
The word typhoon typically conjures thoughts and images of a tropical cyclone with strong winds and the damage caused by them. Indeed typhoons that form in the Northwest Pacific have certainly generated some of the strongest winds ever observed. But, in China, as is the case in other parts of South East Asia, typhoons are also responsible for causing intense flood-related loss. Moreover, because typhoon-related flooding typically occurs several times each year in China, because it is an insured peril, and because it can typically exceed loss from wind, the hydrological features provide a significant hazard that warrants inclusion in loss estimation models of typhoons that affect China.
Precipitation aspects of typhoons in general can be more complicated than the accompanying wind field. Precipitation aspects of post-landfalling typhoons and hurricanes are considerably more complicated than they are prior to landfall. Orographic enhancements, interaction with prevailing monsoon flow, and encounters with eastwardly propagating cold fronts and other synoptic scale and mesoscale weather systems can allow the flood risk from China typhoons to persist for days and for many hundreds of kilometers inland – long after damaging winds have subsided. From this perspective the modeling of post-landfall precipitation and the potential flooding from it are highly challenging aspects of understanding and modeling typhoon loss in China.
Hurricane loss estimation models have been developed at AIR Worldwide Corporation for more than 20 years. Models tailored to region-specific meteorology, geography, and building and insurance practices for the United States, Australia, and Japan to name but a few, have been developed over that time. This presentation highlights the recent development at AIR Worldwide of a typhoon loss estimation model specific to China. In particular, it addresses the significance, complications, and unique features of both wind and flood aspects of typhoons that affect China. It also describes salient meteorological as well as non-meteorological features of the model. Finally, this presentation addresses the potential magnitudes, locations, and insured losses of extreme typhoon events that have yet to be observed in China.
Joint Poster Session 3, Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Poster Session
Monday, 21 January 2008, 2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Exhibit Hall B
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