Extended Abstract (112K)8.2
Economic Sensitivity of Transportation to Weather and Value for Weather Forecasts
Emily Laidlaw, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. K. Lazo and J. Demuth
Many economic sectors are sensitive to weather and weather information, but this sensitivity is not well understood or quantified. A project by NCAR's Societal Impacts Program quantified the impact of weather and weather information on the U.S. economy's eleven non-governmental sectors. This study found that the transportation sectors' gross domestic product varied by about 3.5% due to weather variability – or about $9.75B of the $276B 2000 GDP for the sector. Building on this study of weather impacts, we are implementing the first of 11 planned individual sector sensitivity assessments, focusing first on the transportation sector. Weather impacts on the commercial airline industry alone have been estimated to be as high as $2 billion per year, and the cumulative impacts for the transportation sector as a whole are likely even higher. In order to better understand the transportation sector's sensitivity to weather and to establish reliable methods for assessing weather impacts and values for weather forecasts in all economic sectors, we are developing and implementing expert-elicitation protocol in the five major transportation subsectors: air, rail, water, truck and pipeline. The interviews elicit respondents' experience with weather impacts, sources of weather information, incurred costs from weather events, and needs and values for current and improved weather information. This paper will include an overview of the expert elicitation process, preliminary analysis of acquired data, and information about the next steps of the project.
Session 8, Advances and Applications in Surface Transportation Weather
Thursday, 24 January 2008, 8:30 AM-9:45 AM, 207
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