Third Symposium on Policy and Socio-Economic Research

P1.1

150 Billion Served: Households' Sources, Perceptions, Uses, and Values of Weather Forecast Information

Jeffrey K. Lazo, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. E. Morss and J. Demuth

An Internet-based controlled access survey was implemented with a sample of over 1500 households designed to be representative of the general U.S. public – a sample more representative of the U.S. public than previous studies performed with convenience samples, students, and other small or limited populations. 96.4% of respondents answered yes when asked “Do you ever use weather forecasts?” In this paper we assess survey results on 1465 subjects' sources for weather information (e.g., TV, Internet, radio, or newspaper etc), how often and when they obtain weather information, and how they use this information in decision-making. Results provide strong quantitative support of the importance of weather information to the public – for instance when we summed the number of times different forecast sources were used within each household, the average household accessed weather information 115 times a month. Accounting for the 3.6% or respondents who don't use forecasts, for the over 113 million US households this would total to over 150 Billion forecasts accessed a year. Analysis of another section of the survey, using an exploratory valuation method, provides an estimate of households' values for current weather forecast information. Based on this work, we strongly advocate a well designed and implemented ongoing evaluation of the public's sources, perceptions, uses, and values for weather forecasts. Such an effort would include basic questions that will provide a baseline of information on the type of topics discussed here (sources, perceptions, uses, and values) – add more exploratory questions – perhaps focusing on new products, specific formats for presentation, or more in-depth explorations of questions such as why people use one source versus another and when they do. Given the rapid change of technology and the demonstrated importance of weather information this information would be collected on an ongoing basis – say every three years. Additional efforts could focus as needed on specific topics or issues – such as the tornado or hurricane forecasts, the presentation of uncertainty information, or support for potentially new products or services.

Poster Session 1, Policy and Socio-Economic Research Posters
Wednesday, 23 January 2008, 2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Exhibit Hall B

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