Recorded presentationJ8.1
Downscaling hurricane climatologies from IPCC AR4 climate models: Results and uncertainties
Kerry Emanuel, MIT, Cambridge, MA
A new method of deriving tropical cyclone climatologies from global climate models has been developed. The method begins by randomly seeding the world ocean basins with weak warm core vortices, which are then propagated using a beta-and-advection model applied to the climate model's wind fields, and whose intensity evolution is calculated using a deterministic, coupled ocean-atmosphere hurricane model with very high spatial resolution in the storm core. Most of the seed vortices perish, owing to adverse environmental conditions; those that survive constitute a tropical cyclone climatology. Applying this method to re-analysis data characterizing the current climate gives results that are in excellent agreement with observed tropical cyclone climatologies. The method is then applied to 7 coupled climate models run in support of the most recent IPCC report. Results of this application will be presented. Recorded presentation
Joint Session 8, Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Part I
Monday, 21 January 2008, 1:30 PM-2:30 PM, R02-R03
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