9B.2
Understanding variations in ENSO impacts through a pacemaker ensemble
Benjamin A. Cash, COLA, Calverton, MD
We investigate variations between ENSO events in an eight-member ensemble of pacemaker integrations from 1950-2002. We find that in the majority of events and members summer monsoon rainfall is increased over Bangladesh following an El Niņo event in the boreal winter. However, we also find that one or more members of the ensemble typically produces weak or negative precipitation anomalies over Bangladesh, indicating other processes are modulating or overwhelming the influence of the tropical Pacific. When we compare ensemble members with positive precipitation anomalies to those with negative anomalies, we find the largest and most consistent differences occur in the Indian Ocean during summer. This suggests that large, positive SST anomalies in this region act to counter the influence of ENSO on Bangladesh and may help to explain observed variations between ENSO events.
Session 9B, Climate of the 20th Century (C20C) Part II
Wednesday, 23 January 2008, 8:30 AM-10:00 AM, 217-218
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