3.2
Improving operational solar wind forecasts
Craig D. Fry, Exploration Physics International, Inc., Huntsville, AL
Ionospheric, satellite drag, space radiation, and other space weather forecasts depend upon accurate and reliable solar wind forecasts. The Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry version 2 (HAFv2) model developed by Exploration Physics International, Inc. (EXPI) has been providing quantitative, real-time solar wind forecasts for the past 7 years and is now in operations at Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA). This presentation describes some of the steps underway to improve the quality of operational solar wind forecasts by HAFv2. For example, EXPI is working with AFWA, to couple HAFv2 with the Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) ionospheric model. These two models are the first components of a scalable, portable Space Weather Modeling System that is compliant with the Earth System Modeling Framework. We are using high performance computing capabilities to increase the temporal and spatial resolution of the models and of the data sets that drive the models. EXPI is also working with the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) to integrate new observational capabilities provided by the SMEI and STEREO heliospheric imagers into HAFv2. This will enable forecasters to make mid-course corrections to predictions of CMEs and shocks en route to the Earth. These are some of the steps that promise to improve the skill of our solar wind forecasts. The goal is to provide our government and commercial customers with the actionable space weather information that they need to make operational decisions.
Session 3, Developments In Data Assimilation
Monday, 21 January 2008, 1:30 PM-2:30 PM, 221
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