Recorded presentation7B.1
The CLIVAR C20C modelling project: selected 20th century changes
Adam A. Scaife, Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter, Devon, United Kingdom; and F. Kucharski, C. K. Folland, J. L. Kinter, D. Fereday, S. Grainger, K. E. Jin, J. Knight, S. Kusunoki, M. J. Nath, T. Nakaegawa, P. Pegion, S. D. Schubert, P. Sporyshev, J. Syktus, A. Voldoire, J. H. Yoon, and T. Zhou
We introduce a multi-model set of atmospheric simulations of the 20th Century and use them to test the models against observed 20th Century climate variability. A simple methodology is used to test whether the models can reproduce prominent observed climate variations on both global and regional scales. For the global mean, observed increases in land surface temperature are reproduced by the models. For the deep tropics, strong air-sea coupling in the Pacific allows all models to accurately reproduce the time variability of the Southern Oscillation, although models vary in the strength of their response. For the outer tropics we test the ability of models to reproduce Sahel rainfall variability and find some evidence that only models which represent vegetation changes are able to reproduce the magnitude of the Sahel drought. For the extratropics, models are unlikely to reproduce the observed decadal changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation as a response to forcings, as internal variability or as a combination of both. We discuss the prospects for regional climate prediction given the successes and failures of the models. Recorded presentation
Session 7B, Climate of 20th Century (C20C) Part I
Tuesday, 22 January 2008, 1:30 PM-3:00 PM, 217-218
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