Recorded presentation5.3
High-frequency updating of weather model prediction in the NextGen era
Stan Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and J. Brown and S. S. Weygandt
The NextGen 4-D Data Cube for aviation guidance will require a continuous stream of fresh observations, and even more importantly, procedures for merging these observations into a best estimate of the state of the atmosphere. Assimilation of an increasing number of observations at a high frequency (at least hourly) is essential for nowcasting and for high-frequency refreshing of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Perhaps the most important component of the current weather guidance gridded data for 2-12h over the United States is provided by the hourly updated Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) from NOAA. High-frequency NWP updating will become much more critical in the NextGen era than currently.
In this presentation, we describe the following changes we foresee for high-frequency NWP guidance within the NextGen era.
Hourly updated NWP is headed toward larger domains and higher-resolution, especially over critical areas for aviation activities:
·Rapid Refresh – 2009 – Larger domain, over North America with hourly updating, 2.6x larger than current RUC domain. Will use WRF model and NOAA GSI data assimilation but with RUC-specific enhancements (e.g., ceiling/visibility assimilation, radar assimilation, cloud microphysics)
Further proposed plans beyond Rapid Refresh
·Enhanced Rapid Refresh – 2012 – cover North Pacific and North Atlantic with hourly updating using latest aircraft and satellite observations.
·Global Rapid Refresh (GRR) – 2016 – cover full globe with hourly update cycle
·High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) – 2012 – hourly updated, radar-assimilating, convection-resolving (2-3km)
Use of hourly-updated probabilistic forecasts using ensembles including deterministic members.
·Very Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts (VSREF)
·Requirement for hourly updating will continue into probabilistic forecasts.
Session 5, Nowcasting and Modeling Part I
Tuesday, 22 January 2008, 8:30 AM-9:45 AM, 226-227
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