13th Conference on Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology

5.3

High-frequency updating of weather model prediction in the NextGen era

Stan Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and J. Brown and S. S. Weygandt

The NextGen 4-D Data Cube for aviation guidance will require a continuous stream of fresh observations, and even more importantly, procedures for merging these observations into a best estimate of the state of the atmosphere. Assimilation of an increasing number of observations at a high frequency (at least hourly) is essential for nowcasting and for high-frequency refreshing of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Perhaps the most important component of the current weather guidance gridded data for 2-12h over the United States is provided by the hourly updated Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) from NOAA. High-frequency NWP updating will become much more critical in the NextGen era than currently.

In this presentation, we describe the following changes we foresee for high-frequency NWP guidance within the NextGen era.

Hourly updated NWP is headed toward larger domains and higher-resolution, especially over critical areas for aviation activities:

�Rapid Refresh � 2009 � Larger domain, over North America with hourly updating, 2.6x larger than current RUC domain. Will use WRF model and NOAA GSI data assimilation but with RUC-specific enhancements (e.g., ceiling/visibility assimilation, radar assimilation, cloud microphysics)

Further proposed plans beyond Rapid Refresh

�Enhanced Rapid Refresh � 2012 � cover North Pacific and North Atlantic with hourly updating using latest aircraft and satellite observations.

�Global Rapid Refresh (GRR) � 2016 � cover full globe with hourly update cycle

�High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) � 2012 � hourly updated, radar-assimilating, convection-resolving (2-3km)

Use of hourly-updated probabilistic forecasts using ensembles including deterministic members.

�Very Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts (VSREF)

�Requirement for hourly updating will continue into probabilistic forecasts.

wrf recording  Recorded presentation

Session 5, Nowcasting and Modeling Part I
Tuesday, 22 January 2008, 8:30 AM-9:45 AM, 226-227

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