3.1
Providing weather forecast uncertainty information to the public: Findings from a nationwide survey
Julie Demuth, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. E. Morss and J. K. Lazo
Effectively providing weather forecast uncertainty information is important to the weather community. Forecasters want to provide accurate and usable forecasts that include uncertainty information; users want information they understand and can use in their various decision-making contexts. Continually improving understanding of the physical science of meteorology combined with increasing technological capabilities (e.g., ensemble forecasts) have improved meteorologists' ability to characterize weather forecast uncertainty. However, meteorologists still have limited understanding about what forecast uncertainty information to provide to users and how to effectively communicate that information.
To begin to explore these issues, we conducted a nationwide, controlled-access Internet survey that examined the public's interpretation of and preferences for weather forecast uncertainty information. The survey investigated people's: (1) confidence in weather forecasts; (2) inference of uncertainty into deterministic forecasts; (3) interpretation of probability of precipitation forecasts; (4) preferences for deterministic versus uncertainty-explicit forecast information; and (5) preferences for uncertainty communication formats. This presentation will discuss our key survey findings, implications of the results, and additional research needed to address remaining knowledge gaps.
Recorded presentationSession 3, Application-Oriented Research
Thursday, 24 January 2008, 8:30 AM-9:45 AM, 228-229
Next paper