2.4
Smoke forecasting using the BlueSky smoke modeling framework
Narasimhan K. Larkin, USDA Forest Service, Seattle, WA; and D. Sullivan, S. O'Neill, S. Raffuse, R. Solomon, C. Krull, M. Rorig, and T. Strand
The BlueSky smoke modeling framework is a modular modeling system for creating predictions of smoke from
fires. BlueSky based smoke predictions are currently available across the U.S. through the Fire Consortia for
the Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke and the National Weather Service. BlueSky smoke
predictions are now being implemented in Canada as well. Additionally, BlueSky is now being used in climate and carbon cycling applications.
BlueSky has been significantly modified in the past year, starting with a ground up rewrite of the framework code and the implementation of a new fire information system that reconciles both ground based and satellite detections of fires. This has made BlueSky a more flexible, modular, and portable system and is allowing for expansion of
the system to include more models, and ensembling and inter-model comparison techniques. These capabilites along with rapid response field observations and
comparisons with satellite detected smoke plumes is allowing for enhanced evaluation and callibration studies.
This paper discusses the latest developments and work underway on the BlueSky smoke modeling framework including both model developments and specialized field studies to evaluate the model. Specifically it discusses the largest sources of errors found to affect smoke modeling: plume rise, modelchoices, and fire behavior and reporting, and efforts to mitigate these issues.
Session 2, AIR QUALITY MODELING AND FORECASTING-II
Monday, 21 January 2008, 10:45 AM-11:45 AM, 220
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