P1.27
Vulnerability to Flooding in Western Puerto Rico: Towards a more holistic approach
Jenniffer M. Santos-Hernandez, Univ. of Delaware, Newark, DE; and A. Rojas-Gonzalez
Puerto Rico's geographic location and climatological characteristics make it highly susceptible to natural hazards such as hurricanes, floods, and earthquakes. To compound matters while the quality of life of Puerto Ricans has improved dramatically since the 1950s, economic research shows that the development initiatives implemented in Puerto Rico were unable to solve the economic challenges they faced and are now regarded as unsuccessful (Dietz, 2004). However, investments for the development of infrastructure and the industrialization of Puerto Rico, particularly of its coastal municipalities, facilitated and encouraged migration to the coastal regions. In addition, the development policies implemented in Puerto Rico combined with the lack of effective planning and land use dramatically changed the landscape as areas that were once rural and in some cases devoted to agriculture were transformed into residential areas, and often prone to a variety of hazards. For example, the Western region of Puerto Rico is the region with the largest amount of residents living in areas exposed to coastal hazards, such as tsunamis and storm surge. In addition, it is a region that has experienced serious economic difficulties as a result of the changes and ultimately the termination of the benefits associated with the development program and policies implemented in the island. This paper presents an overview of ongoing interdisciplinary research conducted as part of the Student Led Test Bed of the Center for Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere (CASA) in the Western region of Puerto Rico. CASA is currently developing an enhanced sensing technology that consists of a dense network of small, low-power, low-cost radars with the ability to sample the lower troposphere where many atmospheric events develop. CASA is currently conducting interdisciplinary research through the implementation of three proof-of-concept test beds in Oklahoma, Texas and Puerto Rico. The main premise of our research in the Puerto Rico test bed is that by adopting a systems approach we can better understand the intersection between the social, physical and built environment. To do so, we employ a variety of methods to develop an interdisciplinary quantitative GIS-based distributed flood model to better capture the social, physical and built context in which the intersection with a hazard often leads to a disaster. Our analysis uses the distributed 100 years precipitation frequency estimates of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Atlas 14 and imposes water barriers based on the existing infrastructure to generate a distributed flood model that represents the 100 years average recurrence precipitation intervals and identifies which areas are more likely to flood first. After identifying the areas that are more likely to experience flooding first using 5 minute intervals precipitation estimates, we examine the social vulnerability of the residents of those flood-prone areas using data from the 2000 U.S. Census of Population and Housing. Incorporating and characterizing the social, physical and built environments is an important step towards a more holistic understanding of vulnerability and of the context for which CASA radar technology is developed and implemented. The findings of this research have very important policy implications because they can assist in the development of informed emergency preparedness and response plans that attend the needs of an exposed population with relatively high levels of vulnerability particularly if compared with that of any state in the United States. One of the main by-products of this research is an online tool that will include the findings of our research allowing end-users throughout Puerto Rico to obtain information on the risks and vulnerability of the population in their jurisdiction. Last but certainly not least, the findings of our research will be used to identify the optimal location to place CASA off the grid radars in Western Puerto Rico so that a better sensing and prediction of the most vulnerable areas is ensured and the warning decision making process could be enhanced. This research is supported by the National Science Foundation Engineering Research Center for the Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere (CASA). The authors acknowledge the contribution of Jackie Miller, Xiomara Ortiz and Meredith Beaton to this research effort and extend their strongest gratitude to Dr. Havidan Rodríguez, Dr. Eric Harmsen, Dr. Baxter Vieux, Dr. Sandra Cruz Pol, Dr. Nazario Lugo, and Dr. Walter Díaz for their comments and guidance.
Poster Session 1, Policy and Socio-Economic Research Posters
Wednesday, 23 January 2008, 2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Exhibit Hall B
Previous paper Next paper