P1.57
Cyclones, cones, and confusion: Perspectives from forecasters
Gina M. Eosco, Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY
With the U.S. in a natural period of heightened tropical cyclone activity combining with the possible effects of global warming, now more than ever is the time to communicate hurricane risks effectively. There is growing concern that decision makers, emergency managers, and the public are misinterpreting critical hazard messages regarding the track of the hurricane, commonly referred to as the “cone of uncertainty.” As a visual risk communication tool, these graphics play an important role in the few days prior to a hurricane. As a result, hurricane forecasters intend for the public and emergency managers to understand the meaning of this graphic. But, do forecasters have one distinct meaning? This study focuses on the meaning of the ‘cone of uncertainty' as stated by leading hurricane specialists, broadcast meteorologists, as well as government officials. Interviews were conducted with these key players to determine the objective of the graphic. Preliminary results show that there is no consensus on the goal of the graphic, but rather a culture to provide the public and emergency managers with all the information available. Additionally, institutional boundaries modify how public and private sectors present visual information regarding the ‘cone of uncertainty' as well as other graphics. The range of forecaster perspectives on the graphic may in part lead to public confusion, consequently causing them to misjudge their risks.
A second part of this study includes interviews with members of the public to gather their visual perception and understanding of the “cone of uncertainty.” Despite empirical evidence suggesting public confusion regarding the graphic, no one has yet collected data on individuals' perception and understanding of the graphic. This information will allow comparison between the forecasters' intent and public interpretation of the graphic. Preliminary results of this stage of the research may be available at the time of the meeting.
Poster Session 1, Educational Initiatives Poster Session
Sunday, 20 January 2008, 5:30 PM-7:00 PM, Exhibit Hall B
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