J10.6
Adaptation, policy research and the IPCC: Where are we going (and why am I in this hand basket)?
Roger Pulwarty, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO
Climate and weather are two linked factors among many that can produce changes in our environment. The IPCC (as opposed to the UN Framework Convention) defines climate change as” any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity”. The IPCC Working Group II (Impacts, Adaptation, Vulnerability) was charged with assessing the scientific, technical, environmental, economic, and social aspects of vulnerability to climate change, and, the negative and positive consequences for ecological systems, socio-economic sectors, and human health. The Working Group II report focused on the following issues for different sectors and regions (e.g. water, agriculture, biodiversity) and communities (coastal, island, etc.):
• The role of adaptation in reducing vulnerability and impacts,
• Assessment of adaptation capacity, options and constraints, and
• Enhancing adaptation practice and operations.
The IPCC reports are structured with recognition that vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system or community is exposed, as well as the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the system. The Working Group II report notes that experience and decades of disaster research have shown that non-climactic factors are the most important influences on risk and thus, given a particular vulnerability profile, even small climate changes can produce disproportionate impacts. It is not simply an either/or question as to whether the magnitudes of societal impacts are functions of climate variability and change or of societal conditions alone. As the adaptation sections of WGII note, in spite of such a longstanding body of knowledge, there is little sustained support for vulnerability reduction. Efforts to quantify, in economic terms, the potential impacts of past events (hurricanes, droughts, floods) for present day asset distribution, while useful, have not appeared to influence adjustment responses or improve learning about adjustment from event to event, and tend to focus on the benefits to the least vulnerable. Many lessons have been identified but few have been implemented or evaluated over time.
This presentation will address the following questions in the context of the results of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report:
• What are we adapting to? How are decisions about adaptation being made, and what types of adaptation strategies are being undertaken?
• How useful are present climate analyses for adaptation needs?
• What are the barriers, knowledge vs. action gaps, and opportunities for implementation?
• What are good adaptation practices and how are these learned over time? Is “preparedness” an adequate framing. And “Does it matter if we know any of this?
One end goal is to begin a discussion among the participants at the Policy Research Symposium as to whether and in what circumstances does policy research actually make a difference if all.
Recorded presentationJoint Session 10, Climate Policy, Vulnerability, and Adaptation
Wednesday, 23 January 2008, 10:30 AM-12:00 PM, 230
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