2.3
How can meteorological advances influence the cost of U.S. landfalling hurricanes?
Joel B. Gratz, ICAT Managers, LLC, Boulder, CO
After more than two decades of relatively little Atlantic hurricane activity, the past decade has
seen heightened hurricane activity and more than $150 billion of dollars in damage in 2004 and
2005. While normalized hurricane damage in the United States from 1900-2005 does not show an increasing trend, the high level of damage in 2004 and 2005 comes after decades of improvements to hurricane observation and forecasting. This raises a question about the linkage between scientific advancements and societal impacts: Has the increased meteorological understanding of hurricanes changed the impacts of this natural disaster on society?
This talk surveys the costs and advances of hurricanes science and hurricane impacts, with insurance costs serving as the main point of reference for the latter. The conclusion for the policy and societal impacts area of meteorology is the need to organize a transparent and repeatable methodology to assess the goals and outcomes of meteorological research. Without a clear and consistent methodology to measure trends over time, it is impossible for the field to accurately plan for successes and substantiate results.
Recorded presentationSession 2, Societal Dimensions of Hazards II
Wednesday, 23 January 2008, 4:00 PM-5:30 PM, 228-229
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