Seventh Annual AMS Student Conference


Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns in relation to station temperature anomalies

Richard, Chohin Lam, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA


Keywords: Teleconnection Index, Northern Hemisphere, Standardized Temperature Anomalies, Winter.

Regression analysis is used to investigate the relationship between teleconnection indices and temperature anomalies. According to the U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC), a teleconnection pattern refers to a recurrent and persistent, large-scale pattern of pressure and circulation anomalies that covers large geographic areas. Currently, there are about 20 or so established teleconnection indices. Some of these teleconnection indices, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and the Pacific/ North American pattern (PNA) index, are well understood by the forecasting and researching communities. The rationale behind this research project is to expand our knowledge on teleconnection indices, and to use teleconnection indices in order to improve long-range temperature forecasts.

Using the temperature and teleconnection data for the most recent 30-year time period, the statistical analysis shows that there are strong correlations between teleconnection indices and temperature anomalies for the 10 geographical U.S. Zones in the winter months. For example, the temperature anomalies in New England associate negatively with the East Pacific/ North Pacific pattern (EP/ NP) index. When the value of EP/ NP index becomes negative, warmer-than-average conditions are expected in New England. Multiple regression explains about 70% of the variability in the temperature anomalies in the 10 U.S. Zones. In contrast, the 10 Northern Hemisphere (N.H.) Zones, separated by longitudes, show weaker associations between temperature anomalies and teleconnection indices. Up to 40% of the variance in the temperature anomalies in the 10 N.H. Zones can be explained by multiple teleconnection indices.

Poster Session 1, Student Conference General Poster Session
Sunday, 20 January 2008, 5:30 PM-7:00 PM, Exhibit Hall B

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