JP3.52
NOAA's Hurricane Forecasting Improvement Project Plan
Fred Toepfer, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD
Tropical cyclones continue to be a serious concern for the Nation, causing significant risk to life, property and economic vitality. Since 1990, hurricane forecasters reduced the hurricane forecast track errors by about 50% through the use of improved model guidance, enhanced observations, and forecaster expertise. However, little progress has been made during this period on reducing the intensity error. With recent catastrophic events for the U.S. like Katrina (2005) and Wilma (2005), back- to-back Category 5 storms in the Caribbean Sea like Dean (2007) and Felix (2007), and rapid intensifiers just prior to landfall like Charley (2004) and Humberto (2007), the time is now for NOAA to lead an aggressive effort with matching investments to improve its hurricane forecasting capability.
NOAA established the Hurricane Forecasting Improvement Project (HFIP), a 10-year project designed to accelerate improvements in one to five day forecasts for hurricane track, intensity, storm surge and to reduce forecast uncertainty, with an emphasis on rapid intensity change because of importance to emergency management amongst others.
This project responds to input from stakeholders and recent National Science Board (NSB), Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology (OFCM), and the NOAA Science Advisory Board Hurricane Intensity Research Working Group (HIRWG) reports calling for accelerated improvements in hurricane forecasts. It also establishes a unified approach to hurricane improvements across NOAA operating units and calls for collaboration with our federal partners and the external research community in its execution.
The outcomes of the NOAA HFIP over the next decade are to:
„« Improve hurricane forecast guidance
„« Accelerate and streamline research to operations
„« Improve access, impact, and utility of observations
„« Increase computing capacity and capability for hurricane forecasting and research and development
„« Expand interaction with research community
Major components of the HFIP Plan:
„« Improve the Hurricane Forecast System/Global Forecast System to reduce error in track and intensity forecasts
„« Optimize new and existing observing systems to enhance research and operations capabilities and impacts
„« Expanded forecast tools and applications to aid forecasters
Overarching HFIP Strategies to Improve Forecasts
„« Define and build the next generation operational hurricane forecast system and global forecast system
„« Increase high performance computing capacity
„« Institutionalize and fully fund transition of research to operations
„« Integrate with research community and stakeholders
DRAFT - http://www.nrc.noaa.gov/plans_docs/sab_hfip_plan_23Oct_Final.pdf
Joint Poster Session 3, Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Poster Session
Monday, 21 January 2008, 2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Exhibit Hall B
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