of transistors on a integrated circuit doubles every 2 years leading to
dramatic increase computational power. During the GOES-R era this trend
implies that we will have routine access to petaFLOP, 10^15 FLoating point
OPerations per second, supercomputers. These computers will contain tens of
thousands of processors tied together with a sophisticated high speed network
which provide new challenges and opportunities for space weather forecasting.
One key challenge that must be addressed is writing numerical simulations
which can run on that many processors efficiently in order to reach the
unprecedented levels of resolution. One intriguing possibility is the
simulation of active regions on the Sun and their interaction with large scale
solar magnetic field, including models for eruption of Coronal Mass Ejections
(CME). These computers will also make it possible to routinely produce
coupled simulations of space environment from the surface of the sun, through
interplanetary space, into the tightly coupled magnetosphere - ionosphere
system. Furthermore, they will enable ensemble forecasting environments
including data assimilation and branch predictions to make probabilistic
forecasts about the severity of impacts from CMEs and other solar transients.
Petascale computing coupled with detailed observations and advanced physics
based numerical simulations will make detailed space weather forecasts
possible in the GOES-R era.
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